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The Rundown
SlateHittersPitchersNRFI1st PitchMatchup HistoryStreaksStolen BasesPark FactorsFlight Sim
←Aug 25Aug 26Aug 27→Today
15 games

First Pitch Matchups

1st Pitch for Wednesday, August 26, 2026

New here?

How to Read This Page

BIP = ball in play. Higher score = more likely to put pitch 1 in play.
▶

Tiers

HIGHStrong first-pitch contact matchups (★)
MEDModerate matchups
LOWBottom tier

Leaderboard shows HIGH tier only. The ★ marker flags batters with strong matchup-specific signals.

Outcome Columns

Percentages reflect what happens on the first pitch when the batter swings. Grayed cells = sample too small.

Swing%How often the batter swings at the 1st pitch.
Out/Other%1st pitches that end the AB as a non-hit batted ball — outs, sac flies/bunts, fielders choice, errors.
1B%1st pitches that result in a single.
XBH%1st pitches that result in a double, triple, or home run.

Reading the Signals

— combinations to look for▶
HIGH tier + High XBH%First-pitch power angle. Likely to put it in play AND extra bases when he does.
HIGH tier + Low Swing%Patient HIGH-tier matchup. Rarely swings but produces when he does.
LOW tierFirst-pitch no-contact candidate. The pitcher is likely to get ahead with a called strike or whiff.
Dash (—) on ratesFewer than 5 1st-pitch PAs in the active filter slice — too small to display reliably. Try toggling Year or Hand to see more data.

Filters

YEAR
HAND
Batter stats vs tonight’s opposing pitcher hand
Filter by Game
Top HIGH-tier matchups across the slate
1
DETDET @ TBTB12:10 PM
HIGH
BATTERBrett Callahan(L)★
VSFreddy Peralta(RHP)
SWING74%
OUT16%
1B0%
XBH5%
HIGH
2
WSHWSH @ COLCOL5:45 PM
HIGH
BATTERAndrew Pinckney(R)★
VSTanner Gordon(RHP)
SWING38%
OUT25%
1B0%
XBH0%
HIGH

About the MLB 1st Pitch board

How each starting pitcher opens an at-bat, and which hitters do damage on the first pitch they see. It isolates a single moment of the plate appearance where tendencies are unusually stable and unusually exploitable.

How to read it

Pitcher columns describe how often a starter throws a strike to open, what he opens with, and what hitters have done with it. Hitter columns describe swing rate on the first pitch and the quality of contact when they do swing. A pitcher who lives in the zone early paired with a hitter who ambushes first pitches is the pattern the board exists to surface.

Where the numbers come from

Built from pitch-level data filtered to the first pitch of each plate appearance, split by pitcher handedness and season window. Both sides carry their sample size, because first-pitch rates move quickly on small counts.

Who it's for

For research where the first pitch decides the outcome, and for anyone reading how a starter establishes counts. It is a narrow question answered properly rather than a broad one answered loosely.

What the MLB stats mean
PA / ABPlate appearances and at-bats. Every trip to the plate is a plate appearance; walks, hit-by-pitches and sacrifices do not count as at-bats.
AVGBatting average — hits per at-bat.
SLGTotal bases per at-bat, so a double counts double a single.
ISOExtra-base power — extra bases per at-bat, with singles taken out.
therundown.gg · 1st Pitch Model v2.0
wOBAOne number for overall hitting value. Unlike batting average, it counts a home run more than a double and a double more than a walk.
xBA / xwOBAThe "expected" versions of those stats, based on how hard and at what angle the ball was hit rather than whether it happened to drop in for a hit. Good for spotting a hitter who is hitting the ball well without the results yet.
EVExit velocity — how fast the ball leaves the bat, in mph.
HH%Hard-hit rate — share of batted balls struck at 95 mph or harder.
BRRL% / BarrelShare of batted balls hit hard AND at the angle that most often goes for extra bases. The most productive kind of contact.
K% / BB%How often a hitter strikes out or walks, as a share of the batters faced.
Whiff%How often hitters swing and miss, out of all their swings.
SwStr%How often any pitch thrown gets a swing and a miss.
GB% / LD% / FB%Share of batted balls that stay on the ground, are line drives, or go in the air.
Pull%Share of batted balls hit to the batter’s power side.
Grades (A+ to F)A letter grade for the matchup, A+ being the strongest. Separate grades cover home runs, extra-base hits and hits.
Form tagA read on the last one to two weeks. SURGE is hottest and FREEZE is coldest; PWR and HH+ flag power and hard contact specifically.

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