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The Rundown
SlateFront OfficeTeamsPlayersCompareRotationsDraftDvPMatchup BoardTargetsPlaytypes1st Point
←Jun 12Jun 13Jun 14→Today

NBA

1st Point — Saturday, June 13, 2026

Top 5 starters per team. Rankings refresh as lineups confirm.

New here?

How to Read This Page

What the columns mean and how to read them
▶

Players are ranked within each game by their modeled share, and the six factor rows underneath show what is driving it — the opening tip, early usage, shot location and the rest. A high share with one dominant factor is a different proposition from a moderate share supported by all six. Shares within a game sum toward one, so read them relative to the other players in that game.

No same-team top pairs tonight.

About the NBA 1st Point board

Model rankings for who scores the first point of each game, with the reasoning broken into its component factors. It is a narrow market and this board treats it as a modeling problem rather than a hunch about the tallest center.

How to read it

Players are ranked within each game by their modeled share, and the six factor rows underneath show what is driving it — the opening tip, early usage, shot location and the rest. A high share with one dominant factor is a different proposition from a moderate share supported by all six. Shares within a game sum toward one, so read them relative to the other players in that game.

Where the numbers come from

Factors are computed from historical opening possessions and each player’s early-game role, then combined and calibrated so the output reads as a share rather than an arbitrary score. Rankings are written per slate and per game.

Who it's for

For first-basket and first-point markets. The factor breakdown is there so you can disagree with the model on a specific input rather than accepting or rejecting the whole number.

What the NBA stats mean
GP / MPGGames played and minutes per game.
REB CHCRebound chances — rebounds that were actually available to a player, not just the ones he grabbed. Useful for separating opportunity from result.
POT ASTPotential assists — passes that would have been assists if the shot had gone in. Measures playmaking without punishing a teammate’s miss.
USG%
therundown.gg · Data Refreshed Jun 14, 2:03 AM · Calibration: 2026-06-12
Usage rate — share of the team’s possessions a player uses while on the floor.
TS%True shooting percentage — scoring efficiency that accounts for two-pointers, three-pointers and free throws together.
ORtg / DRtgPoints produced and points allowed per 100 possessions.
NetRtgOffensive rating minus defensive rating.
DvPDefense vs Position — how much a defense gives up to opponents at one position, rather than overall. A team can defend well overall and still be the place guards go to score.
Allowed / Percentile / AdjustedThree ways to read the same defensive cell. Allowed is the raw per-game number. Percentile ranks it 0 to 100 across the league, where higher means an easier matchup. Adjusted shows how much better or worse players do against that defense than they normally do.
PPPPoints per possession on a given play type — how efficiently a player finishes that action.
Freq%Frequency — share of a player’s possessions that came from a given play type.
ColorsShading is calibrated to the NBA’s own range, not college. The same number reads a different color on the NCAA board, so do not compare cell colors across the two sports.

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