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The Rundown
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←Aug 23Aug 24Aug 25→

NCAAB · Men's D-I · 2026-27

Bracketology

The projected field by resume — seed line, in/bubble/out, quad wins, best win + worst loss. Ranks by a tunable resume model (T-Rank base + quad-weighted resume + SOS); auto-bids aren't modeled, so a low-resume conference champ can read out even though it earns a bid.

New here?

How to Read This Page

What the columns mean and how to read them
▶

Status separates teams that are comfortably in from those on the margin and those outside it. A seed line is a projection built on the resume to date, so it moves with results; the resume columns beside it are the reason a team sits where it does, and are the more durable thing to read.

0 in field

No bracketology on file for 2026-27 yet — the resume model runs in-season.

Glossary — Bracketology
SeedProjected NCAA tournament seed (1–16) — what seed line the team would land on if the bracket were set today.
Seed LineOverall S-curve rank across the whole projected field (1 = the top overall seed, ~68 = last team in).
In / Bubble / OutProjected status — a lock for the field, on the cut line, or currently outside it. Auto-bids aren’t modeled, so a low-résumé conference champ can read Out even though it earns a bid.
RésuméRésumé score — the model’s overall tournament-profile rating (T-Rank base + quad-weighted résumé + SOS); higher = stronger case.
Q1Quadrant-1 record — wins/losses vs the top tier of opponents (by rank + venue); the marquee résumé bucket.
SOSStrength of Schedule — national rank (1 = toughest), by average opponent adjusted efficiency.
Best Win / Worst LossThe highest-ranked opponent beaten and the lowest-ranked opponent lost to, with that opponent’s rank.

About NCAAB Bracketology

The projected tournament field with the resume behind each team — seed lines, current bracket status, and where a team stands relative to the cut. It is a read of the field as it looks now, not a forecast of March.

How to read it

Status separates teams that are comfortably in from those on the margin and those outside it. A seed line is a projection built on the resume to date, so it moves with results; the resume columns beside it are the reason a team sits where it does, and are the more durable thing to read.

Where the numbers come from

Built from team results and strength-of-schedule context across the season, updated as games are played.

Who it's for

For following the shape of the field through the season, and for understanding why a team with a good record is still on the wrong side of the line.

What the College basketball stats mean
GP / MPGGames played and minutes per game.
REB CHCRebound chances — rebounds that were actually available to a player, not just the ones he grabbed. Useful for separating opportunity from result.
POT ASTPotential assists — passes that would have been assists if the shot had gone in. Measures playmaking without punishing a teammate’s miss.
USG%Usage rate — share of the team’s possessions a player uses while on the floor.
TS%
therundown.gg · Men's college basketball · projected tournament field + resume
True shooting percentage — scoring efficiency that accounts for two-pointers, three-pointers and free throws together.
ORtg / DRtgPoints produced and points allowed per 100 possessions.
NetRtgOffensive rating minus defensive rating.
DvPDefense vs Position — how much a defense gives up to opponents at one position, rather than overall. A team can defend well overall and still be the place guards go to score.
Allowed / Percentile / AdjustedThree ways to read the same defensive cell. Allowed is the raw per-game number. Percentile ranks it 0 to 100 across the league, where higher means an easier matchup. Adjusted shows how much better or worse players do against that defense than they normally do.
ColorsShading is calibrated to the college range, not the NBA’s. The same number reads a different color on the NBA board, so do not compare cell colors across the two sports.

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