WNBA
1st Point — Tuesday, August 25, 2026
Top 5 starters per team. Rankings refresh as lineups confirm.
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How to Read This Page
Players are ranked within each game by modeled share, and the factor rows underneath show what is driving it — the opening tip, early usage, shot location and the rest. Shares within a game sum toward one, so they are read relative to the other players in that game rather than across the slate.
CHI @ 
CON · 6:00 PMCONOlivia Nelson-Ododa(C)CHI1st Point %8.9%
CONKennedy Burke(G)CHI1st Point %8.7%
CONOlivia Nelson-Ododa8.9%CHICCONKennedy Burke8.7%CHIGAbout the WNBA 1st Point board
Model rankings for who scores the first point of each game, with the reasoning broken into its component factors rather than delivered as a single number.
How to read it
Players are ranked within each game by modeled share, and the factor rows underneath show what is driving it — the opening tip, early usage, shot location and the rest. Shares within a game sum toward one, so they are read relative to the other players in that game rather than across the slate.
Where the numbers come from
Factors are computed from historical opening possessions and each player’s early-game role, then combined and calibrated so the output reads as a share. A shorter league season means less history behind these factors than the equivalent basketball board, and the shares sit closer together as a result.
Who it's for
For first-basket and first-point markets. The factor breakdown lets you disagree with a specific input rather than the whole ranking.
What the WNBA stats mean
GP / MPGGames played and minutes per game.
REB CHCRebound chances — rebounds that were actually available to a player, not just the ones he grabbed. Useful for separating opportunity from result.
POT ASTPotential assists — passes that would have been assists if the shot had gone in. Measures playmaking without punishing a teammate’s miss.
USG%Usage rate — share of the team’s possessions a player uses while on the floor.