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The Rundown
SlateDvPTargets1st PointRotations
←Aug 25Aug 26Aug 27→Today

WNBA

1st Point — Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Top 5 starters per team. Rankings refresh as lineups confirm.

New here?

How to Read This Page

What the columns mean and how to read them
▶

Players are ranked within each game by modeled share, and the factor rows underneath show what is driving it — the opening tip, early usage, shot location and the rest. Shares within a game sum toward one, so they are read relative to the other players in that game rather than across the slate.

No same-team top pairs tonight.

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About the WNBA 1st Point board

Model rankings for who scores the first point of each game, with the reasoning broken into its component factors rather than delivered as a single number.

How to read it

Players are ranked within each game by modeled share, and the factor rows underneath show what is driving it — the opening tip, early usage, shot location and the rest. Shares within a game sum toward one, so they are read relative to the other players in that game rather than across the slate.

Where the numbers come from

Factors are computed from historical opening possessions and each player’s early-game role, then combined and calibrated so the output reads as a share. A shorter league season means less history behind these factors than the equivalent basketball board, and the shares sit closer together as a result.

Who it's for

For first-basket and first-point markets. The factor breakdown lets you disagree with a specific input rather than the whole ranking.

What the WNBA stats mean
GP / MPGGames played and minutes per game.
REB CHCRebound chances — rebounds that were actually available to a player, not just the ones he grabbed. Useful for separating opportunity from result.
POT ASTPotential assists — passes that would have been assists if the shot had gone in. Measures playmaking without punishing a teammate’s miss.
USG%Usage rate — share of the team’s possessions a player uses while on the floor.
TS%True shooting percentage — scoring efficiency that accounts for two-pointers, three-pointers and free throws together.
ORtg / DRtgPoints produced and points allowed per 100 possessions.
NetRtgOffensive rating minus defensive rating.
DvPDefense vs Position — how much a defense gives up to opponents at one position, rather than overall. A team can defend well overall and still be the place guards go to score.
Allowed / Percentile / AdjustedThree ways to read the same defensive cell. Allowed is the raw per-game number. Percentile ranks it 0 to 100 across the league, where higher means an easier matchup. Adjusted shows how much better or worse players do against that defense than they normally do.
therundown.gg · Data Refreshed Aug 24, 11:42 PM