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The Rundown
SlateHittersPitchersNRFI1st PitchMatchup HistoryStreaksStolen BasesMilestonesDaily TrackerPark FactorsFlight SimLeaders
←Sep 24Sep 25 — not todaySep 26→Today
Research

1st Pitch for Friday, September 25, 2026

First Pitch Matchups

Which hitters put the first pitch in play, and how each starter opens an at-bat.

New here?

How to read this page

What the tiers mean, and how to read the first-pitch percentages.
▶

Tiers

HIGHMost likely to put the first pitch in play (★)
MEDMiddle of the pack
LOWLeast likely to put the first pitch in play

The Top Hitter Matchups list shows HIGH only, so every row there carries the ★.

Outcome Columns

Every percentage below is a share of the first pitches this hitter has seen from this kind of pitcher. A grayed cell means too few of them to say anything.

Swing%How often he swings at the first pitch.
Out/Other%How often the first pitch is hit and the at-bat ends without a hit — an out, a sacrifice, a fielder's choice or an error.
1B%How often the first pitch goes for a single.
XBH%How often the first pitch goes for a double, triple or home run.

Reading the Signals

— combinations to look for▶
HIGH tier + high XBH%Likely to put the first pitch in play, and it goes for extra bases when he does.
HIGH tier + low Swing%He rarely offers at the first pitch, but he does damage on the ones he takes a cut at.
LOW tierThe pitcher is likely to get ahead here — a called strike or a swing and miss on pitch one.
Dash (—) on ratesFewer than five first pitches under the Year and Hand you have picked — too few to print a rate. Widen either one to see more.

Filters

YEAR
HAND
Batter stats vs tonight’s opposing pitcher hand
The hitters most likely to put the first pitch in play
1
STLSTL @ MILMIL6:40 PM
HIGH
BatterCesar Prieto(L)★
vsRobert Gasser(LHP)
Swing—
Out—
1B—
XBH—
HIGH
2
TEXTEX @ MINMIN7:10 PM
HIGH
BatterCorey Seager(L)★
vsJoe Ryan(RHP)
Swing53%
Out12%
1B3%
XBH3%
HIGH

About the MLB 1st Pitch board

▶

How each starting pitcher opens an at-bat, and which hitters do damage on the first pitch they see. It isolates a single moment of the plate appearance where tendencies are unusually stable and unusually exploitable.

How to read it

Two views. Top Hitter Matchups lists the hitters most likely to put the first pitch in play, with how often each swings at it and what follows — an out, a single, or extra bases. Starting Pitcher Summary is the other side: how often each starter opens with a strike, how often hitters swing, and how often they put it in play. A starter who fills the zone early against a hitter who attacks the first pitch is the pattern the board exists to find.

therundown.gg · 1st Pitch Model v2.0

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