1st Point — Monday, October 12, 2026
Early-season note: first-scorer predictions carry more uncertainty through mid-November while game samples are still building.
No games today — showing the next day with games, October 12, 2026.
New here?How to read this page
▶
How to read this page
Players are ranked inside each game by their chance to score its first point. Click a name for the parts: how often his team scores first, which follows the opening tip, and his share of that, built from how many of his team’s first three shots he takes and how often he makes its first basket. A game’s chances add up to 100%, so compare a player with the others in his own game. It is close to a coin flip: 15% is a strong chance.
Show
The percentage beside a name is that player's chance to score his game's first point. Darker green is a higher chance, and a game's players add up to about 100%. Click any player for the four things behind his number.
- No lineup for LON and no recent starts to project from, so its players are left out and this game adds up to less than 100%.
- Lineup not posted for POR — projected from recent starts.
- Lineup not posted for OKC — projected from recent starts.
- Lineup not posted for ATL — projected from recent starts.
- Lineup not posted for BKN — projected from recent starts.
- Lineup not posted for WAS — projected from recent starts.
- Lineup not posted for MIN — projected from recent starts.
- Lineup not posted for NYK — projected from recent starts.
- Lineup not posted for SAS — projected from recent starts.
- Lineup not posted for UTA — projected from recent starts.
LON @ 
POR · 3:00 PM
POR · 3:00 PMPORD. AvdijaDeni Avdija(F)Chance to score first11.9%
PORS. HendersonScoot Henderson(G)Chance to score first11.4%
SAS @ 
UTA · 8:00 PMSASV. WembanyamaVictor WembanyamaUTAChance to score first20%
PORDeni Avdija11.9%LONFPORScoot Henderson11.4%LONGSASVictor Wembanyama20%UTA—The percentage beside a name is that player's chance to score his game's first point. Darker green is a higher chance, and a game's players add up to about 100%. Click any player for the four things behind his number.
About the NBA 1st Point board
▶
Who is most likely to score the first point of each game, and the reasons behind the number. A narrow question, answered as a modeling problem rather than a hunch about the tallest center.