1st Point — Thursday, October 8, 2026
Early-season note: first-scorer predictions carry more uncertainty through mid-November while game samples are still building.
New here?How to read this page
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How to read this page
Players are ranked inside each game by their chance to score its first point. Click a name for the parts: how often his team scores first, which follows the opening tip, and his share of that, built from how many of his team’s first three shots he takes and how often he makes its first basket. A game’s chances add up to 100%, so compare a player with the others in his own game. It is close to a coin flip: 15% is a strong chance.
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The percentage beside a name is that player's chance to score his game's first point. Darker green is a higher chance, and a game's players add up to about 100%. Click any player for the four things behind his number.
- No starting lineups have been posted yet, so every team’s five is projected from its recent starts.
BOS @ 
CLE · 6:00 PMCLEE. MobleyEvan Mobley(C)BOSChance to score first15.1%
CLEJ. AllenJarrett Allen(C)BOSChance to score first13.3%
NOP @ 
MIA · 6:30 PMMIAB. AdebayoBam AdebayoNOPChance to score first20.1%
CLEEvan Mobley15.1%BOSCCLEJarrett Allen13.3%BOSCMIABam Adebayo20.1%NOP—The percentage beside a name is that player's chance to score his game's first point. Darker green is a higher chance, and a game's players add up to about 100%. Click any player for the four things behind his number.
About the NBA 1st Point board
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Who is most likely to score the first point of each game, and the reasons behind the number. A narrow question, answered as a modeling problem rather than a hunch about the tallest center.