1st Point — Friday, October 16, 2026
No games today — showing the last day with games, October 16, 2026.
New here?How to read this page
▶
How to read this page
Players are ranked inside each game by their chance to score its first point. Click a name for the parts: how often his team scores first, which follows the opening tip, and his share of that, built from how many of his team’s first three shots he takes and how often he makes its first basket. A game’s chances add up to 100%, so compare a player with the others in his own game. It is close to a coin flip: 15% is a strong chance.
Show
- Part of BOS’s posted lineup is new to our data — the rest is projected from recent starts.
- Part of TOR’s posted lineup is new to our data — the rest is projected from recent starts.
- Part of IND’s posted lineup is new to our data — the rest is projected from recent starts.
- Part of DAL’s posted lineup is new to our data — the rest is projected from recent starts.
- Part of CHI’s posted lineup is new to our data — the rest is projected from recent starts.
- Part of MEM’s posted lineup is new to our data — the rest is projected from recent starts.
- Part of WAS’s posted lineup is new to our data — the rest is projected from recent starts.
- Part of SAC’s posted lineup is new to our data — the rest is projected from recent starts.
- Part of POR’s posted lineup is new to our data — the rest is projected from recent starts.
- Part of GSW’s posted lineup is new to our data — the rest is projected from recent starts.
- Part of UTA’s posted lineup is new to our data — the rest is projected from recent starts.
- Part of DEN’s posted lineup is new to our data — the rest is projected from recent starts.
MIA @ 
ORL · 6:00 PMORLW. Carter Jr.Wendell Carter Jr.MIAChance to score first14.8%
ORLF. WagnerFranz Wagner(F)MIAChance to score first14.2%
TOR @ 
DET · 6:00 PMDETJ. DurenJalen Duren(C)TORChance to score first18.5%
ORLWendell Carter Jr.14.8%MIA—ORLFranz Wagner14.2%MIAFDETJalen Duren18.5%TORCThe percentage beside a name is that player's chance to score their game's first point, and a game's players add up to about 100%. Click any player for the four things behind the number.
Early-season note: first-scorer predictions carry more uncertainty through mid-November while game samples are still building.
About the NBA 1st Point board
▶
Who is most likely to score the first point of each game, and the reasons behind the number. A narrow question, answered as a modeling problem rather than a hunch about the tallest center.