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1st Point — Wednesday, October 21, 2026

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What you're looking at and how to read it
▶

Players are ranked inside each game by their chance to score its first point. Click a name for the parts: how often his team scores first, which follows the opening tip, and his share of that, built from how many of his team’s first three shots he takes and how often he makes its first basket. A game’s chances add up to 100%, so compare a player with the others in his own game. It is close to a coin flip: 15% is a strong chance.

Which game
Show
ATLATL @ ORLORL · 6:00 PM
ORLORLW. Carter Jr.Wendell Carter Jr.(C)▶
vsATLATL
Chance to score first12.2%
ORLORLF. WagnerFranz Wagner(F)▶
vsATLATL
Chance to score first11.7%
MILMIL @ WASWAS · 6:00 PM
WASWASA. DavisAnthony Davis(C)▶
vsMILMIL
Chance to score first12.6%
ATLATL @ ORLORL · 6:00 PM
ORLORLWendell Carter Jr.12.2%▶ATLATLC
ORLORLFranz Wagner11.7%▶ATLATLF
MILMIL @ WASWAS · 6:00 PM
WASWASAnthony Davis12.6%▶MILMILC

The percentage beside a name is that player's chance to score their game's first point, and a game's players add up to about 100%. Click any player for the four things behind the number.

Early-season note: first-scorer predictions carry more uncertainty through mid-November while game samples are still building.

About the NBA 1st Point board

▶

Who is most likely to score the first point of each game, and the reasons behind the number. A narrow question, answered as a modeling problem rather than a hunch about the tallest center.

therundown.gg · Data Refreshed Oct 20, 11:05 PM CDT

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